Treatment of input uncertainty in hydrologic modeling: Doing hydrology backward with Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation

There is increasing consensus in the hydrologic literature that an appropriate framework for streamflow forecasting and simulation should include explicit recognition of forcing and parameter and model structural error. This paper presents a novel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler, entitled differential evolution adaptive Metropolis (DREAM), that is especially designed to efficiently estimate the posterior probability density function of hydrologic model parameters in complex, high-dimensional sampling problems. This MCMC scheme adaptively updates the scale and orientation of the proposal distribution during sampling and maintains detailed balance and ergodicity. It is then demonstrated how DREAM can be used to analyze forcing data error during watershed model calibration using a five-parameter rainfall-runoff model with streamflow data from two different catchments. Explicit treatment of precipitation error during hydrologic model calibration not only results in prediction uncertainty bounds that are more appropriate but also significantly alters the posterior distribution of the watershed model parameters. This has significant implications for regionalization studies. The approach also provides important new ways to estimate areal average watershed precipitation, information that is of utmost importance for testing hydrologic theory, diagnosing structural errors in models, and appropriately benchmarking rainfall measurement devices

Investigations to constrain retreat of the Greenland Ice Sheet: glacial geomorphology and sampling for cosmogenic exposure dating of the Centrumsø area, Kronprins Christian Land, northeast Greenland

Over the last few decades atmospheric warming across the Arctic has been far more rapid than elsewhere in the world, contributing to an increase in the sea-level contribution from the Greenland Ice Sheet. Given predictions of continuing atmospheric warming during the 21st century and beyond, it is crucial to understand how the ice sheet has responded to past variations in climate. Kronprins Christian Land lies in a climatically sensitive, yet sparsely studied part of northeast Greenland, in an inter-ice-stream region just north of Nioghalvfjerdsbrae. This paper presents the results of preliminary geomorphological mapping from a 2m spatial-resolution digital elevation model of a 5500km2; region around Centrumsø, as well as a report of sampling for cosmogenic exposure dating, and field observations concerning the extent and nature of palaeo-ice coverage and dynamics. Twenty-one 2kg samples were collected from carefully selected glacial erratics of various lithologies using a hammer and chisel as well as a small angle-grinder. In general, moraine ridges in the study area are relatively small (2–5m in height) and lack a prominent peak, reflecting limited sediment availability, and suggesting some post-glacial re-mobilization of sediment or deflation caused by melting of the moraines' ice cores. Striated cobbles and boulder-sized clasts were observed at up to 540m a.s.l., sub-rounded erratics (some of which were sampled) at up to 800m a.s.l. and streamlined bedrock at up to 360m a.s.l., all of which indicate sliding between the ice and the bedrock and temperate basal conditions. In addition, several proglacial spillways were noted, along with numerous terraces, commonly situated between lateral moraines and valley sides, which are probably kame terraces formed by glaciofluvial transport and deposition. The prevalence of these landforms indicates significant glaciofluvial action requiring large volumes of meltwater, suggesting this region experienced high-volume melt in short intensive summers during past ice-recession events

A fatal case of louping-ill in a dog: immunolocalization and full genome sequencing of the virus

Louping-ill (LI), caused by louping-ill virus (LIV), results in a frequently fatal encephalitis primarily affecting sheep and red grouse (Lagopus lagopus scotica), but it does occur in other species. An adult male Border collie dog was definitively diagnosed with fatal LI and the lesion profile, LIV antigen distribution and full genome sequence of the LIV responsible were investigated to determine if this differed significantly from sheep-derived LIV. No gross lesions were present. The histological lesions were confined to the central nervous system and comprised of lymphocytic perivascular cuffs, glial foci, neuronal necrosis and neuronophagia. Immunolocalization of viral antigen showed small amounts present in neurons only. These histological and immunohistochemical findings were similar to those reported in affected sheep. Compared with published full genome sequences of sheep-derived LIV, only very minor differences were present and phylogenetically the virus clustered individually between a subclade containing Scottish strains, LIV 369/T2 and G and another subclade containing an English isolate LIV A. The LIV isolated from the dog shares a common progenitor with LIV A. These findings suggest there is no canine-specific LIV strain, dogs are susceptible to sheep-associated strains of LI and with the increase in tick prevalence, and therefore exposure to LIV, a safe, effective vaccine for dogs may be required

Aquaculture and capture fisheries : a conceptual approach toward an integrated economic-ecological analysis

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2012. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Taylor & Francis for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Aquaculture Economics & Management 16 (2012): 167-181, doi:10.1080/13657305.2012.678551.This study presents a framework for analyzing the interactions between aquaculture and capture fisheries in the context of ecosystem-based management. We extend a model of the economic and ecological systems in coastal New England by incorporating an aquaculture sector in a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and by examining the forage fish and aquaculture link in a marine food web. We show that aquaculture and commercial fisheries interact in a complex way throughout the economic and ecological systems.This work was supported by the NOAA Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Program (Award No. NA09NMF4270097), the MIT Sea Grant College Program (NOAA Award No. NA10OAR4170086, Subaward No. 5710002974), and the Johnson Endowment of the WHOI Marine Policy Center.2013-06-0

The use of mid-infrared spectrometry to predict body energy status of Holstein cows

Energy balance, especially in early lactation, is known to be associated with subsequent health and fertility in dairy cows. However, its inclusion in routine management decisions or breeding programs is hindered by the lack of quick, easy, and inexpensive measures of energy balance. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential of mid-infrared (MIR) analysis of milk, routinely available from all milk samples taken as part of large-scale milk recording and milk payment operations, to predict body energy status and related traits in lactating dairy cows. The body energy status traits investigated included energy balance and body energy content. The related traits of body condition score and energy intake were also considered. Measurements on these traits along with milk MIR spectral data were available on 17 different test days from 268 cows (418 lactations) and were used to develop the prediction equations using partial least squares regression. Predictions were externally validated on different independent subsets of the data and the results averaged. The average accuracy of predicting body energy status from MIR spectral data was as high as 75% when energy balance was measured across lactation. These predictions of body energy status were considerably more accurate than predictions obtained from the sometimes proposed fat-to-protein ratio in milk. It is not known whether the prediction generated from MIR data are a better reflection of the true (unknown) energy status than the actual energy status measures used in this study. However, results indicate that the approach described may be a viable method of predicting individual cow energy status for a large scale of application

The effect of an iron oxide catalyst (Fe3O4) on the characteristics of Waxy Oil coke

A study was conducted on four commercial Waxy Oil green cokes with varying catalyst (Fe3O4) concentrations (ash content: 1.84–11.18%), to determine the effect thereof on the structural characteristics of calcined (1400 C) and pre-graphitised (2000 C) cokes. An increase in the catalyst content of the coke shows a substantial detrimental effect on the overall anisotropy of the carbon microtexture. Catalyst particles below 100 lm) were found to present a physical barrier around which the anisotropic flow domains formed. At higher catalyst concentrations the catalyst dominates the carbon microtexture; however, there is still evidence of flow patterns albeit with a shorter range. XRD powder data and Raman spectroscopy provide evidence of multiphase graphitisation in both the calcined coke and pre-graphite. The crystal development of the calcined coke is dominated by catalytic graphitisation and that of the pregraphite showed a greater dependence on thermal graphitisation. This is the first scientific study of the effect of catalyst concentration on the characteristics of this novel coke and proves the disingenuous comparability thereof with a highly anisotropic coke (e.g. needle coke).http://www.elsevier.com/locate/fue

Zero-point vacancies in quantum solids

A Jastrow wave function (JWF) and a shadow wave function (SWF) describe a quantum solid with Bose--Einstein condensate; i.e. a supersolid. It is known that both JWF and SWF describe a quantum solid with also a finite equilibrium concentration of vacancies x_v. We outline a route for estimating x_v by exploiting the existing formal equivalence between the absolute square of the ground state wave function and the Boltzmann weight of a classical solid. We compute x_v for the quantum solids described by JWF and SWF employing very accurate numerical techniques. For JWF we find a very small value for the zero point vacancy concentration, x_v=(1.4\pm0.1) x 10^-6. For SWF, which presently gives the best variational description of solid 4He, we find the significantly larger value x_v=(1.4\pm0.1) x 10^-3 at a density close to melting. We also study two and three vacancies. We find that there is a strong short range attraction but the vacancies do not form a bound state.Comment: 19 pages, submitted to J. Low Temp. Phy

A newly recognised 1860–1840 Ma tectono-magmatic domain in the North Australia Craton: Insights from the Tennant Region, East Tennant area, and the Murphy Inlier

New U-Pb monazite ages from amphibolite-facies metasedimentary rocks from the Tennant Region, Murphy Inlier and intervening East Tennant area, together with existing data, reveal the presence of an 1860–1840 Ma tectono-magmatic domain over 600 km long towards the centre of the North Australian Craton. In-situ ion probe U-Pb dating of biotite-hosted monazite in amphibolite-facies schist in the Tennant Region yielded an age of 1858 ± 7 Ma, which is attributed to north–south shortening (D1) at 1860–1855 Ma. Existing data indicate that D1 was associated with east–west trending, upright folds and mostly low-grade, regional metamorphism (M1) in the Tennant Region and the Murphy Inlier. The D1 event preceded voluminous and widespread felsic magmatism between 1855 and 1845 Ma. This included the emplacement of the Tennant Creek Supersuite, as well as the Yungkulungu Formation and equivalent stratigraphy, in the Tennant Region and in East Tennant, and the Nicholson Granite and Cliffdale Volcanics in the Murphy Inlier. Newly determined monazite ages from amphibolite-facies schist from the East Tennant area and the Murphy Inlier constrain a second episode of deformation and metamorphism (D2/M2) to ~ 1845 Ma, coincident with the cessation of widespread magmatism. D2 is characterised by regional southeast to northeast trending shear zones. Phase equilibria modelling reveals that peak pressure–temperature (P–T) conditions during M2 in the East Tennant area were 2.8–3.3 kbar and 655–680 ◦C, indicating an extremely high apparent geothermal gradient (>190 ◦C/kbar) that was likely influenced by the preceding magmatism. Existing data indicate that D2 also affected the Tennant Region, where it coincided with significant Cu-Au-Bi mineralisation, albeit at significantly lower P–T conditions (sub-greenschist facies) than in the East Tennant area. The development of the 1860–1840 Ma tectono-magmatic domain, extending from west of the Tennant Region to east of the Murphy Inlier, marks an intermediate step in the migration of tectonism in the North Australia Craton, from the Arnhem Province in the north at 1880–1860 Ma to the Aileron and Tanami provinces in the south by ca. 1830 Ma.A.D. Clark, L.J. Morrissey, M.P. Doublier, N. Kositcin, A. Schofield, R.G. Skirro

Dielectronic Recombination in He+ Ions

This research was sponsored by the National Science Foundation Grant NSF PHY-931478

Dielectronic Recombination in He+ Ions

This research was sponsored by the National Science Foundation Grant NSF PHY-931478